The Guardian view on Ethiopia’s return to conflict: civilian catastrophe and a spiralling regional polycrisis
The escalating violence reflects deep domestic rifts – but is fuelled by broader geopolitical power games
TL;DR
- The 2019 Nobel Peace Prize awarded to Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed for ending the border conflict with Eritrea has soured as the peace deal's failure facilitated a war in Tigray that killed 600,000 people.
- Violence has resurged in northern Ethiopia, with old foes forming new pacts, including an 'Alliance for Survival' against the federal government, and territorial disputes between the TPLF and Amhara's Fano militia persist.
- Ethiopia's demand for Red Sea access angers Eritrea, while Ethiopia also accuses Egypt and Sudan of backing the TPLF, fueled by disputes over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance dam and water resources.
- The escalating violence is part of a broader regional polycrisis, intensified by the Iran war's impact on fertilizer and fuel, reduced aid budgets, and El Niño, demanding urgent humanitarian support.
- A truce is a priority as the TPLF appears deeply split, with little appetite for conflict among soldiers and civilians, amidst factionalized leadership; Ethiopia needs relief, reconstruction, and political reconfiguration, separate from wider regional wars.