Ceasefire changes little for shipping in strait of Hormuz, experts say
Analysts expect only limited increase in shipping as vessels will still need to seek Iranian permission to transit
TL;DR
- Shipping analysts predict no 'mass exodus' of ships through the Strait of Hormuz despite a conditional ceasefire.
- Iran still controls passage and requires ships to seek permission, a requirement unchanged by the agreement.
- Approximately 2,000 ships and 20,000 seafarers have been trapped in the Gulf since the war began.
- Shipowners are unlikely to move vessels until they have certainty about safe passage and required procedures.
- Under Iran's plan, safe passage would be allowed under Iranian military management, continuing a previous traffic control system.
- The plan also allows Iran and Oman to charge transit fees of up to $2 million per ship.
- Seafarers' unions and the UN shipping agency are seeking guarantees of safety and a safe evacuation mechanism.
- Some vessels have used a new northerly maritime route in Iranian waters, which constrains traffic capacity.