Kalshi traders are not expecting a U.S. and Iran nuclear deal soon
As of early Sunday morning, Kalshi traders saw a 29% likelihood of a nuclear deal between the U.S. and Iran before January 2027.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders have low expectations for a U.S.-Iran nuclear deal, despite President Trump's announcement of upcoming talks.
- Odds for a deal increased after Trump halted planned military strikes but have since decreased.
- Oil prices fell after Trump's announcement of negotiation talks and the halt of strikes.
- Iran's Foreign Ministry stated there are no immediate plans for talks with the U.S.