Why does the US often face two Chinas?
As the date for President Donald Trump’s high-stakes trip to Beijing approaches, the American media landscape is once again fractured by a familiar paradox.
TL;DR
- American media often perceives two different 'Chinas': one real and complex, the other imaginary and based on Western assumptions, leading to strategic misjudgments.
- The 'temperature test' model suggests observing China's level of support or opposition in global conflicts to understand its strategic patterns.
- During the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, China's 'hot' alignment with the U.S. led to economic gains.
- In the post-9/11 era, China's 'lukewarm' stance in the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq allowed for economic growth.
- China's 'warm' support for Russia in the 2022 Ukraine war has resulted in strategic losses, including diminished trust from the EU and U.S.
- Currently, China employs a 'Double Cold' strategy towards the U.S. strikes against Iran, offering little actual support to Tehran.
- A key reason for the 'imaginary China' perception is failing to differentiate between the interests of the Chinese Communist Party and the Chinese nation.
- The CCP prioritizes its internal security, making autocratic allies like Russia beneficial, despite limited value to ordinary Chinese citizens or businesses.
- To manage the U.S.-China relationship effectively, it's essential to engage with the real China, not a projection of Western reasoning.