Europe frets about Trump. But soon he could be the least of our problems
The US relationship is stabilising, but how will Europe face up to Russia and China if President Le Pen is in power?
TL;DR
- Europe's primary external challenges over the next 12-18 months are anticipated to be from Russia and China, rather than the US.
- While the relationship with the US under Trump has been difficult, it is becoming more stable compared to the escalating risks from Russia and China.
- Russia's economic struggles may incentivize further military escalation in Ukraine and against NATO.
- China's economic model, characterized by subsidies and an export-led approach, necessitates a political response from Europe.
- France's upcoming presidential election, with the potential rise of Marine Le Pen, could be a disruptive force for Europe's coherence and its ability to manage external threats.
- Europe's ability to maintain political unity is crucial for navigating its relationships with the US, Russia, and China.