What Russia Is Really Up To in Europe
Moscow doesn’t want a conventional war, but it is busy fighting a hybrid one.
TL;DR
- European intelligence agencies have linked hundreds of sabotage operations, including cyberattacks, arson, and severed cables, to Russia.
- U.S. intelligence suggests a conventional attack on NATO is possible between fall and 2029, but hybrid warfare is a more likely and preferred strategy for Russia.
- Russia's hybrid campaign aims to deter European support for Ukraine by creating fear of direct attacks on allies.
- Recent incidents include fires at ammunition plants and the discovery of explosive-laden drones near German facilities.
- Europe has become a significant base for Ukrainian arms manufacturing and provides the bulk of financial assistance to Kyiv.
- While large-scale invasions are considered less plausible due to NATO defenses, Russia continues its hybrid war, which European security services are actively thwarting.
- The operations, even when foiled, serve to send a message of surveillance and access to potential targets.
- Russia's hybrid war has not succeeded in stopping the flow of weapons, money, or intelligence to Ukraine.
- Putin persists in the campaign to demand concessions by creating the perception of an impending full-scale war.