NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for a critical fall season

The 2025 football season and 2024 presidential election pushed prediction markets into the prominence they enjoy today.

NFL and midterm elections set up prediction markets for a critical fall season

TL;DR

  • Prediction markets are expecting increased adoption this fall due to the simultaneous occurrence of the NFL season and midterm election campaigns.
  • The past two years saw prediction markets enter the mainstream with trades tied to the 2024 presidential election and a surge in volume with the start of the NFL season.
  • Daily trading volume is consistently in the billions, with dominant platforms and smaller exchanges competing for market share.
  • Platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are launching marketing campaigns, new features, and partnerships to capitalize on the upcoming events.
  • Despite some technical glitches and ongoing legal battles with states regarding the nature of event contracts, platforms are operating under CFTC regulations.
  • Newer platforms are leveraging sports events, including the NFL and MLB playoffs, to drive growth and prepare for the critical fall season.
  • Political markets, such as those for midterm elections, are also being highlighted to remind the public of the platforms' broader capabilities beyond sports.
  • The longer runway for planning political markets in 2026, compared to 2024, offers opportunities for platform development and user engagement.