How great power competition in the Central Sahel helped al Qaeda
A fight for influence between France, Russia, and the United States in the central Sahel has fomented disaster in the region, after an al Qaeda affiliate filled the vacuum opened by the competition.
TL;DR
- Great power competition between France, Russia, and the US in the central Sahel has led to a security crisis.
- Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger have expelled French forces and sought ties with Russia following coups.
- This shift has coincided with the rise of Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM), al Qaeda's Sahel affiliate.
- Weak state structures and vast territories make central governments in the Sahel unable to exert full control.
- Juntas gained legitimacy by opposing perceived French neo-colonialism, embracing pan-Africanist rhetoric.
- Russia's support has been less substantial than France's, and its counterinsurgency tactics are ill-suited to the region.
- The absorption of Wagner into the Russian Ministry of Defense has resulted in a less effective and more bureaucratic 'Africa Korps'.
- Russian-encouraged centralization has neglected rural areas, increasing government unpopularity and benefiting JNIM.
- JNIM controls significant territory in Burkina Faso and influences supply routes, demonstrating strategic capability.
- While JNIM poses an existential threat, analysts doubt its ability to directly take over governments due to legitimacy and capacity issues.
- There is a potential opening for increased US involvement, as anti-French sentiment does not automatically translate to anti-US sentiment.