Republicans Hang On
REPUBLICANS HANG ON. By a number of conventional measures, the Republican Party should be headed for a huge loss in this November’s House midterm elections. But some experts think the results will be much closer than originally thought. The problem for Republicans is those experts still think the GOP will lose, just not in an old-fashioned blowout.
TL;DR
- Conventional indicators suggest Republicans are likely to lose the House in the upcoming midterm elections.
- President Trump's job approval rating and the direction of the country are traditionally negative signs for the president's party.
- Economic sentiment is poor, with a majority rating the economy as bad, which typically hurts the incumbent party.
- Historically, the president's party loses House seats in midterms, with few exceptions.
- The generic ballot shows Democrats with a lead, but it's not as large as in previous midterm elections that resulted in significant seat losses for the president's party.
- The public's low favorability ratings for the Democratic Party, slightly lower than for Republicans, may mitigate the extent of Republican losses.
- Gerrymandering and a reduced number of swing voters are structural factors that may prevent massive blowout swings in Congress.
- The election is expected to result in Democrats controlling the House, but by a slim margin.