Kalshi traders say Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal before January
Two weeks ago traders on Kalshi saw a 60% chance that the Strait of Hormuz would open before August. Now traders see a higher chance it won't open before 2027.
TL;DR
- Kalshi traders predict the Strait of Hormuz will not see normal traffic flow before January.
- Odds for traffic returning to normal before August have dropped from 66% to 21%.
- Normal traffic is defined as over 60 ships per day on a seven-day moving average.
- Recent attacks between Iran and Israel have influenced the market odds.
- President Trump hinted the strait could remain blocked through Labor Day, but also expressed hope for a quick resolution.
- Despite Iran stating it stopped strikes, traders have not significantly altered the odds.