Trump's Endgame Is Surrender
He seems to hope to slip away without Americans noticing the magnitude of this defeat.
TL;DR
- The U.S. is reportedly negotiating a 'letter of intent' with Iran to formally end the war and start 30 days of nuclear program negotiations and talks on reopening the Strait of Hormuz.
- Critics view this as the U.S. walking away from the crisis, a euphemism for surrender, with any further strikes seen as performative gestures.
- Iran, calculating that Trump will not launch further attacks, is making no concessions and demanding terms of a victor, including war reparations and control of the strait.
- The proposed 30-day cease-fire and talks are seen as a tacit admission of defeat, as Iran will use the time to rearm and solidify its control over the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran is establishing a new regime for the Strait of Hormuz, prioritizing strategic partners like Russia and China, and potentially denying access to adversaries.
- Several nations are already negotiating transit agreements with Iran, indicating a stampede to secure terms as the U.S. signals no intention to fight for reopening the strait.
- The situation could lead to the collapse of international sanctions against Iran and increase its central role in the global economy.
- This outcome is seen as a major strategic setback for the United States and potentially devastating for Israel's security, leaving it more isolated.
- The potential strengthening of Iran could revitalize groups like Hamas and Hezbollah and end initiatives like the Abraham Accords.
- The new normal in the Persian Gulf may be chronic instability and disruptions in shipping due to the U.S. ceding hegemony.