Why Iran’s Leaders Think They’ve Won
An interim deal promises to meet a lot of Iranian demands, but it won’t solve the problems of peace.
TL;DR
- An interim agreement to end the U.S. and Israeli war against Iran is likely, potentially meeting Iranian demands.
- The deal may involve opening the Strait of Hormuz, with shared sovereignty and possible environmental fees.
- A portion of Iran's frozen assets could be released.
- Future talks will address Iran's nuclear program, with Trump possibly accepting uranium enrichment within the country.
- The security elites in Iran appear to have prevailed over hard-liners opposing diplomacy.
- DPRK has signaled potential easing of draconian wartime measures, including reopening the internet.
- Despite diplomatic breathing room, Iran continues to prosecute dissidents and execute prisoners.
- Iran's foreign policy stance remains hostile towards Israel and the U.S., with warnings to neighboring countries.
- The interim agreement may not secure an end to Israel's actions against Hezbollah or fully resolve sanctions for economic reconstruction.
- Iran faces challenges in rebuilding its economy and infrastructure, and in managing its populace.