How war, security and coalition math are shaping the Israeli election
Israeli voters will head to the polls to cast their votes in a general election on Tuesday.
TL;DR
- Israel's election is the first since the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks and the subsequent military campaign in Gaza.
- The election system involves proportional representation, with parties needing 3.25% of the vote to enter parliament, and coalition governments are usually formed.
- Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu leads the right-wing Likud party, which formed a coalition with far-right and ultra-Orthodox parties in late 2022.
- Recent polls indicate that neither Netanyahu's bloc nor the main opposition bloc, led by Gadi Eisenkot, may secure the 61 seats needed to govern, making smaller parties potentially decisive.
- Key campaign issues include national security, mandatory military service (particularly for ultra-Orthodox men), and the economic toll of the war.
- The election is seen as a referendum on Netanyahu, with voters prioritizing the ability of a party to protect the population.
- While security is paramount, different blocs may have slightly differing approaches to foreign policy, such as reviewing strategy towards Iran or actions in Gaza.
- The opposition bloc might be more conciliatory on issues like military action in Gaza and actions in the West Bank, potentially cracking down on settler violence and avoiding annexation.
- Any shift in leadership is unlikely to bring a dramatic change in Israel's stance on Palestinian statehood, Iran, and other foreign policy issues.