Here are 10 ways a ‘super’ El Niño could impact the planet
The climate phenomenon is intensifying an already unequal global economy
TL;DR
- A super El Niño, with sea surface temperatures at least 2C higher, is highly probable and could last until 2027.
- El Niño intensifies global economic inequality, with climate shocks disproportionately affecting poorer populations and farmers.
- Potential impacts include severe drought in rain-fed agricultural areas, leading to increased import dependence and food price hikes.
- Global food supply chains face significant risk, with reduced yields of maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans in major producing regions.
- Increased wildfire risk is expected in areas like South America due to drier conditions.
- Excess rainfall and flooding are predicted for parts of the southern United States, South America, the Horn of Africa, and central Asia.
- Greater heat will likely increase coal consumption for air conditioning, especially in South Asia.
- Drought can impact hydropower generation, increasing the risk of grid failures, as seen in Colombia.
- Declining fish stocks are anticipated due to reduced nutrient availability for phytoplankton in the Pacific.
- Geopolitical tensions may rise over critical agricultural inputs like fertilizers, with some nations imposing export restrictions.
- Workers in physically demanding jobs face heightened health risks from heat stress and heat-related illnesses.
- Reduced crop yields and weakened economies can double the likelihood of civil conflict in affected tropical countries.