Democrats keep expanding their battleground map. History suggests it's a mirage
Welcome to Thursday’s Washington Secrets. We have another nerdy look into the final stages of midterm campaigning, and we ask whether Democrats have any chance in the districts they have just added to the list of targets.
TL;DR
- Democrats added six new districts to their "Red to Blue" program, targeting areas won by Donald Trump by an average of 16 points.
- The "Red to Blue" program provides candidates with strategy guidance, fundraising, and training from the Democratic Campaign Committee.
- Historical data from 2014, 2018, and 2020 shows that candidates added late to the "Red to Blue" list have a very low success rate.
- Winners in these late-added districts have typically been in open seats previously held by Democrats.
- Democrats are optimistic due to factors like an unpopular president and high fuel prices, but some within the party question the strategy.
- Republican strategists dismiss the expansion as a recurring "gimmick" to divert resources and acknowledge the historical trend of Democratic losses in these districts.