Putin doesn’t need to beat NATO
As a boy of 14, I was very fortunate to find a hobby shop near my home that was owned by a retired PBY captain named Al Younghaus. It is where I met lifelong friends and where I first began playing wargames, a hobby I continue today. I can remember my first game, played on a blue carpet with miniature World War II ships. The game was Seekrieg.
TL;DR
- Wargaming and poker concepts, like 'fold equity,' offer insights into Vladimir Putin's strategic approach.
- Putin may leverage the perceived high costs of opposition for NATO nations rather than relying solely on military strength.
- Internal friction within Ukraine's security agencies and Russia's tolerance for casualties are seen as potential 'tells' or weaknesses.
- Hybrid warfare tactics are used to test the West's resolve and readiness.
- Economic fatigue, potential industrial job losses in Germany, and refugee influx in Great Britain and France are analyzed as factors affecting European cohesion and capacity.
- The author questions Europe's 'strategic willingness' to challenge Putin, considering internal fractures and fear of escalation.
- The conflict in Ukraine is presented as an ongoing game with uncertain outcomes, potentially leading to territorial concessions.