Spain's Pedro Sánchez is a progressive outlier in Europe – and over Ceuta, he is being made to pay for it
The Spanish PM has been one of few European leaders to stand up to Trump. He now faces coercive diplomacy and an emboldened far right at home
TL;DR
- Thousands of migrants entered Spain's Ceuta enclave, triggering strong reactions from the far-right and criticism from EU leaders.
- EU leaders, in a letter signed by 22 heads of government, appeared to blame Spain's liberal immigration policies for the crisis.
- Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez criticized the "prejudice, misinformation and attacks" from his peers, but his government appeared isolated.
- The events in Ceuta are seen as a consequence of Morocco's coercive diplomacy, using migration flows to exert political pressure on Spain.
- Reports suggest Moroccan border guards facilitated the migrant crossings, a tactic used previously during diplomatic tensions.
- The crisis highlights Spain's progressive foreign policy outlier status in an increasingly right-leaning EU.
- Potential US retaliation for Spain's stance on the Iran war, combined with Morocco's importance to the Trump White House, may have emboldened Morocco's actions.
- US intelligence transfers and coordinated attacks from the Trump-aligned universe could target Sánchez politically ahead of Spanish elections.
- Sánchez's pragmatic approach of prioritizing cooperation and rapid containment risks long-term stability, as seen in past concessions on Western Sahara.
- Morocco's motives may be linked to Spain's rapprochement with Algeria, Morocco's rival over Western Sahara, and its ambition to advance claims on Ceuta and Melilla.
- Sánchez's foreign policy aims to adapt to the new global economic geography, challenging the old Atlantic order, but the Ceuta crisis shows this is fraught with danger.