In GOP Midterm Calculation, Avoiding the Unthinkable
In GOP Midterm Calculation, Avoiding the Unthinkable. Republican politicos, and everyday voters, too, are inundated with predictions of disaster in the upcoming midterm elections. And indeed, the outlook for the party keeping the House is not good. The outlook for holding the Senate is better — iffy but possible. The big factors in determining midterm outcome — presidential job approval, generic ballot, history — are plainly discouraging for Republicans.
TL;DR
- The Republican party faces a discouraging outlook for the upcoming midterm elections, with poor predictions for keeping the House and a difficult but possible path to holding the Senate.
- GOP strategists are focusing on specific Senate races, prioritizing those that are close and winnable, as well as those where a loss would be considered 'unthinkable' due to historical Democratic underperformance.
- Key states for Republican focus include Minnesota, Iowa, Maine (for close races), and Texas, South Carolina, Kansas, and Michigan (for 'unthinkable' losses).
- Historical data and current polling present challenges and uncertainties in several of these critical races, prompting significant investment and campaign efforts from Republican strategists and PACs.