Venezuela Needs More Than an Election Date
Maria Corina Machado wants a voting day. So does Diosdado Cabello. Their apparent agreement should worry anyone who thinks Venezuela's next election will end Chavismo.
TL;DR
- Maria Corina Machado and Diosdado Cabello both want a voting day in Venezuela, but this should concern those hoping for an end to Chavismo.
- Chavismo, led by figures like Cabello and acting President Delcy Rodriguez, controls key institutions (police, courts, electoral council), enabling them to manipulate elections before voting.
- A credible election may require at least 12 months, but the current timeline of nine months for July 2027 favors those who control the existing infrastructure.
- Washington's focus on oil production and commercial arrangements, potentially ahead of democratic reform, could lead to a politically acceptable vote that doesn't result in a transfer of power.
- The opposition faces internal divisions and the significant challenge of governing institutions still populated by Chavista loyalists.
- Machado should demand a sequence of actions, including relinquishing institutional control and rebuilding the electoral council, rather than just a deadline.
- Washington should link concessions to measurable progress to avoid inadvertently supporting a transition whose outcome is predetermined by untouched institutions.
- Chavismo has a history of retaining institutional power even when its political legitimacy waned, and an election on its terms could be its most successful 'managed event' yet.