The Curse of the Incumbent
The wave of voter anger that swept the globe in 2024 is still rolling.
TL;DR
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is trailing Flávio Bolsonaro in Brazil's presidential first-round voting, necessitating a runoff.
- This mirrors a global trend of anti-incumbent sentiment, where voters express dissatisfaction with current leadership.
- Examples of this trend include elections in Hungary, Denmark, Germany, Spain, and the United Kingdom.
- The motivations for this wave include a post-COVID hangover and deeper dissatisfaction with democratic governments.
- Incumbents traditionally have an electoral advantage, but this trend challenges that, potentially creating instability.