Nuclear War and Malicious Use of AI Threaten End of Humanity by 2100, Says Lancet Assessment
Newly established commission identifies 17 catastrophic threats to human health but says ‘realistic route to act’ on each exists
TL;DR
- Human extinction by 2100 is a potential risk from malicious AI use or nuclear conflict.
- These threats lead a list of 17 major health risks over the next 75 years, which also include climate crisis and childhood malnutrition.
- All identified threats are interconnected and must be addressed collectively, but practical solutions are available.
- The report modeled threats using disability-adjusted life years (Dalys) to quantify lost healthy years.
- Nuclear conflict could cause extinction through atmospheric blockage of sunlight, leading to famine, or via AI-created biological weapons.
- Other 'major catastrophic threats' causing over 1 billion cumulative Dalys include air pollution, antimicrobial resistance, and conventional conflict.
- Action to limit global heating could prevent 1.89 billion years of healthy life loss.
- Cuts to international health aid could cause up to 1.5 billion Dalys lost before 2100, disproportionately affecting sub-Saharan Africa.
- The commission comprises 35 experts and will update its assessment annually.
- Leaders are urged to invest in technological innovations and strengthen health systems to anticipate, prevent, and prepare for these diverse threats.