How populist politics succeeds and fails
Why is populism, broadly defined, on the brink of historic victories around the world, while populism in the form of President Donald Trump’s Republican Party is poised to lose one or both houses of Congress in the United States?
TL;DR
- Populism is seeing historic victories globally, with parties like Marine Le Pen's in France, Vox in Spain, AfD in Germany, and Giorgia Meloni's government in Italy gaining prominence.
- In South America, conservative populists have defeated leftist candidates in several countries, and Brazil's presidential election is heading to a runoff with a Bolsonaro candidate leading.
- Key drivers for the global populist wave include voter backlash against high immigration, concerns about economic and cultural assimilation, bloated government payrolls, and high rates of violent crime.
- In the US, while populism is on the rise globally, Trump's Republican Party faces potential losses due to persistent inflation, perceived failures in controlling the border, and internal party divisions.
- Trump's past policy successes, such as controlling immigration, paradoxically reduce the immediate need for his specific brand of populism, while his leadership style and unconventional policy choices have also contributed to Republican electoral challenges.