Jackson Hole analyst roundup: Warsh's speech sends hike chances higher, may put Fed `at odds' with Treasury
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish stance reinforced expectations of a relatively tighter stance at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting in September.
TL;DR
- Kevin Warsh's hawkish speech at Jackson Hole increased market expectations for a September rate hike.
- Traders' probability of a quarter-point hike in September rose to 60.4%.
- Analysts noted the specificity and hawkish direction of Warsh's speech, emphasizing inflation risks and price stability.
- Some analysts are skeptical, citing weak labor market data and believing Warsh is inflating inflation fears.
- Warsh's stance on interest rates may put the Fed at odds with the US Treasury's plan to buy back long-term securities.
- The hawkish stance strengthened the dollar and negatively impacted gold prices.