Oil exports from the Gulf rise to more than 60% of level before Iran war, Goldman Sachs estimates
It has become difficult to figure out how much oil is flowing from the Gulf because information from the region is limited due to the war, Goldman said.
TL;DR
- Goldman Sachs estimates Gulf oil exports at 15-16 million barrels per day, more than 60% of pre-war levels.
- Exports are 7-8 million bpd below normal levels but have surged 5-6 million bpd from the March low.
- Tracking oil flow is difficult due to limited information, delayed data, tankers with off transponders, limited satellite coverage, and increased ship-to-ship transfers.
- Revisions suggest oil transits through the Strait of Hormuz are near US estimates of 8-10 million bpd.
- Producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict.
- Shipping markets anticipate disruptions continuing well into 2027.