Goldman just revised this credit-market forecast thanks to the AI sector
AI-related supply has helped USD investment grade gross issuance to keep its active momentum all through summer, prompting Goldman to raise its forecast higher.
TL;DR
- AI-related supply has fueled record U.S. dollar investment-grade gross debt issuance this year.
- Goldman Sachs has raised its 2026 USD IG gross credit supply forecast to $2.3 trillion from $2.1 trillion.
- The net supply forecast for 2026 was also increased to $1.0 trillion from $850 billion.
- AI issuers account for approximately 24% of USD IG gross supply this year.
- Year-to-date returns for both USD IG and EUR IG have been negative, impacted by rising U.S. Treasury and German Bund yields.
- Goldman Sachs expects declining yields to improve future total returns, though they may remain below historical averages.