Big polling miss in Michigan Democratic Senate primary
There was a big polling miss in Tuesday’s Michigan Democratic Senate primary that raises questions about how much we really know about the midterm elections, even though the expected candidate ultimately won.
TL;DR
- Polls significantly overestimated Abdul el Sayed's victory margin in the Michigan Democratic Senate primary.
- El Sayed won by about 1 point, contrary to predictions of a double-digit win.
- Reasons for the miss include heavy spending on opponent Haley Stevens, difficulties in polling younger/lower-propensity voters, and potential 'herding' by pollsters.
- The polling miss raises concerns about the accuracy of midterm election forecasts.
- Other progressive candidates in different races also underperformed expectations or lost.
- The results may indicate vulnerabilities in the Democratic coalition and could impact the general election.