The Senate seat most likely to flip
THE SENATE SEAT MOST LIKELY TO FLIP. When strategists on both sides look at the 2026 Senate map, the state at the top of the list of those most likely to switch parties is North Carolina, where Republican Sen. Thom Tillis is retiring, and former Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant lead in the race to replace him.
TL;DR
- North Carolina is the state most likely to switch parties in the 2026 Senate map.
- Former Gov. Roy Cooper has a significant lead over Republican Michael Whatley for the open Senate seat.
- President Trump's job approval rating in North Carolina is low, with 38% approval and 59% disapproval.
- Voters blame Trump for the increased cost of living and are more inclined to trust Democrats to handle it.
- Public support for the war in Iran is low, with a majority opposing it.
- Cooper is better known and has higher favorable numbers than Whatley.
- This race is considered the first 'open seat' that Democrats would need to win to take Senate control.
- Political analyst Charlie Cook views a Senate flip as "very realistic" due to races like North Carolina's.