Trump’s ‘economic D-day’ against Iran risks driving the stakes even higher
As with its approach to Hormuz, the US has mistaken applying pressure for an actual strategy. But Tehran has chips of its own to play
TL;DR
- The US Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, calls the new Iran policy "Operation Economic Outcast," aiming to cut Iran off from the global economy via sanctions.
- Iran acknowledges its economy is battered but is signaling a strategy of endurance and counter-pressure, rather than immediate capitulation.
- Iranian officials have warned that participating in the US economic campaign is an "act of war" and threatened to disrupt oil exports.
- China is resisting US sanctions targeting its buyers of Iranian oil, posing a significant challenge to the effectiveness of the US strategy.
- The US faces a choice between tolerating Iran-China trade or escalating coercion, risking wider economic confrontations.
- The contest is a dangerous game of endurance, with the US betting on Iran's economy breaking first, and Iran betting on US tolerance for economic costs breaking first.