The threatening thaw: climate professor on heatwave risks to tipping point of permafrost
Prof Gustaf Hugelius warns wildfires could accelerate release of methane and carbon as vast regions approach irreversible thresholds
TL;DR
- Permafrost stores 1,500 gigatons of carbon, three times more than all living vegetation.
- Thawing permafrost releases carbon dioxide and methane, potent greenhouse gases that accelerate global warming.
- Thawing creates irreversible landscape changes (thermokarsts), leading to continuous carbon emissions.
- Wildfires and heatwaves are accelerating permafrost thaw and reaching local tipping points.
- By the end of the century, permafrost could release 200-300 gigatons of CO2 equivalents under certain warming scenarios.
- Methane is a more potent short-term greenhouse gas, while carbon dioxide is a longer-term threat.
- The release of greenhouse gases from permafrost is virtually certain, but the precise rate is less clear.
- Reducing emissions rapidly is the only way to limit permafrost thaw and its consequences.
- Economic damage from permafrost thaw, especially to infrastructure and resource extraction, will likely outweigh any benefits.
- The researcher expresses deep concern about the long-term consequences for future generations due to current emissions.