Fed rate hike in September is all but guaranteed after CPI report, economists say

Updated on: September 11, 2026 / 1:40 PM EDT / CBS News

Fed rate hike in September is all but guaranteed after CPI report, economists say

TL;DR

  • August's Consumer Price Index rose 3.4% annually, exceeding forecasts and accelerating core price increases.
  • The likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike at the September 16th meeting has jumped to nearly 90%.
  • Higher gasoline prices contributed significantly to the monthly inflation increase.
  • Economists anticipate a 0.25 percentage point rate hike, bringing the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4%.
  • Further rate hikes are projected for December and March 2027 by some analysts.
  • Interest rate hikes would increase borrowing costs for consumers but boost returns for savers.
  • Recent spikes in oil and diesel prices, exacerbated by geopolitical conflicts, are raising concerns about sustained inflation.
  • Some Federal Open Market Committee members have signaled willingness to hike rates due to unsatisfactory disinflation progress.