Russia preparing possible ‘provocation’ in Baltic states or Poland, sources say
Kremlin may attempt to test Nato cohesion as Russia comes under growing pressure from Ukraine, according to sources from two countries
TL;DR
- Latvian intelligence and a senior political source from a second Nato member have warned of potential Russian provocations against the Baltic states or Poland.
- These provocations are expected to be 'hybrid attacks' rather than a full-scale invasion, aimed at testing Nato's cohesion and signalling pressure on allies supporting Ukraine.
- Russia may be seeking to 'throw the dice' as it struggles with its invasion of Ukraine and faces pressure from Ukraine's long-range drone attacks on targets near Moscow and St Petersburg.
- Nato is holding its annual summit amid uncertainty about US commitment to the alliance.
- Past Russian sabotage activities include firebombs in parcels and decoy drones entering Polish airspace.
- Ukraine has developed deep strike capabilities, hitting targets within Russia, including recent drone attacks on Moscow.
- Concerns about Russian escalation have surfaced previously, notably in autumn 2022, but without evidence of actual deployment of weapons of mass destruction.