Profits, Prophets, Coaches and Kings by Jared Diamond review
The author of Guns, Germs and Steel falters in this flawed study of whether individuals really make a difference
TL;DR
- Jared Diamond's 'Hamlet test' aims to determine if prominent individuals are uniquely impactful, but is challenged for disregarding scholarly opinions, particularly regarding Shakespeare and Marlowe.
- The book utilizes 'natural experiments,' statistical comparisons of similar past events, to analyze various fields like economics, politics, and business.
- Examples of 'natural experiments' include analyzing minimum wage effects on employment, CEO impact on company earnings, and the influence of sports coaches.
- The article criticizes Diamond's application of these methods, citing examples like using parking fines as a proxy for corruption or cousin marriage for IQ, and misinterpreting a study on assassinations.
- The author suggests Diamond neglects subject-matter experts and relies too heavily on quantitative social science methods, missing nuances that traditional scholarship provides.