Iran's Air Was Already Deadly. Is a Postwar Pollution Crisis Coming?
Most attention on Iran today is understandably focused on the war and the possibility of another round of major attacks. But one consequence has received far less attention: Iran is heading toward winter with a damaged energy system and the prospect of burning more fuel, much of it dirtier, in a country where polluted air was already killing tens of thousands every year.
TL;DR
- War has damaged Iran's energy system, reducing gas processing capacity.
- Iran was already struggling with air pollution and winter gas shortages before the war.
- The government is preparing to use more liquid fuel and dirtier diesel/gasoline this winter.
- Decades of failed energy and transportation policies under the Islamic Republic created vulnerability.
- Protectionist policies allowed inefficient domestic automakers to dominate, resulting in an aging, high-emission vehicle fleet.
- Power plants and industries have historically relied on dirtier fuels like mazut during gas shortages.
- Technical solutions require long-term investment and planning, which have been lacking.
- The air pollution crisis is largely a consequence of governance-induced choices rather than simple mismanagement.
- The cumulative effect of these choices, worsened by war, will disproportionately affect the public.