Oil prices could hit $120, analysis finds, as Americans absorb $100 billion fuel hit
Updated on: September 8, 2026 / 1:46 PM EDT / CBS News
TL;DR
- Goldman Sachs warns that increased attacks in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea could push oil prices above $120 a barrel.
- Americans have already spent an additional $100 billion on fuel between February 28 and September 8 due to the Iran war.
- Geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war are primary drivers of rising oil prices.
- Shortages in global refining capacity and sustained demand for refined products are also contributing to price increases.
- Diesel prices reached a record high of $5.90 a gallon on Labor Day.
- Inflation remains elevated, with August inflation expected to be 3.3% annually, above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
- Goldman's base case expects Brent crude to fall to $85 a barrel by year-end, but notes risks are tilted to the upside.
- Market expectations are shifting towards a prolonged conflict, with a higher probability of Brent remaining above $100 in March 2027.
- Eurasia Group analysts anticipate oil prices will stay between $85 and $105 per barrel, seeing little chance of conflict resolution.