Mamdani-backed candidates are likely to win in NYC primaries, prediction market traders expect
Voters are heading to the polls in New York, with four competitive races in Democratic congressional primaries in focus.
TL;DR
- Traders on prediction market platform Kalshi expect Mayor Zohran Mamdani's endorsed candidates to win two out of three competitive Democratic congressional primaries in New York City.
- Brad Lander (NY-10) and Claire Valdez (NY-7) are favored to win their races, while Darializa Avila Chevalier (NY-13) is considered an underdog.
- In the NY-12th district, where Mamdani did not endorse, traders see state Assemblymember Alex Bores as an underdog due to significant spending for and against him related to AI regulation positions.
- Odds on Kalshi are based on combo contracts and individual nominee contracts, verified by the New York State Board of Elections and the Democratic Party, respectively.
- Prediction market odds differ from traditional political polling methodologies.