How event contract bundles are boosting volume on prediction markets
Combo contracts are driving volume growth even as they make up a small, albeit consistent, share of transactions.
TL;DR
- Combo contracts, similar to parlays in sports betting, are driving a surge in notional volume on prediction markets.
- Combos now account for over 50% of notional volume on Kalshi and nearly 50% on Polymarket U.S., largely due to sports betting.
- The high notional volume of combos can be misleading as they often involve low cash input but can have large potential payouts.
- The way prediction markets report volume, as mandated by the CFTC, inflates numbers compared to traditional sportsbooks' 'handle'.
- Experts suggest that 'taker volume' might be a more accurate measure of actual trading activity than notional volume.