Polls show GOP staring down a midterm election reckoning
This past spring, I examined public polling that was already flashing danger signs for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections. Months later, those indicators have not improved; indeed, multiple surveys suggest the incumbent party’s position has deteriorated. These cycles almost never go well for the president’s party, and barring some major surprises, history looks poised to repeat itself in November.
TL;DR
- Public polling from spring showed warning signs for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
- These indicators have not improved, and multiple surveys indicate a deterioration in the incumbent party's position.
- Historically, midterm elections are difficult for the president's party.
- An NBC News poll shows Democrats with a 5-point lead on the generic congressional ballot.
- Some Republican strategists consider this outcome acceptable given the current situation.