Prediction market traders think job creation rebounded in August
Traders see 50-50 odds that the U.S. economy added more than 50,000 jobs last month.
TL;DR
- Traders on prediction markets expect a rebound in hiring for August after a disappointing July.
- Kalshi traders see 50-50 odds of more than 50,000 jobs being created, slightly below the Dow Jones consensus estimate of 53,000.
- Polymarket traders give a 48% likelihood of over 50,000 jobs created in August.
- Prediction market traders and economists have overestimated payroll numbers for the past two months.
- Traders see a significant chance (1-in-4) for either job losses or the creation of more than 80,000 jobs in August.