Online prediction market traders make millions betting on U.S. military operations
This is an updated version of a story first published on May 17, 2026. The original video can be viewed here.
TL;DR
- Over a billion dollars has been staked online on military decisions and outcomes this year.
- A U.S. Army soldier, Gannon Ken Van Dyke, was charged with using classified intelligence to place bets on a military operation.
- Prediction markets like Polymarket offer wagers on future events, including military conflicts.
- Studies indicate a significantly higher success rate for military bets compared to sports wagering, suggesting systemic insider trading.
- A group of nine linked accounts allegedly made $2.4 million with a 98% win rate betting on U.S. military operations.
- A large wager of $22 million was placed on whether an Iranian missile would enter Israel, leading to threats against a journalist.
- The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is responsible for policing fraud and insider trading but faces staffing challenges.
- There is concern that enemies could use information from these betting markets to plan their own strategies, posing a national security risk.