Trump Dreads an Iran Deal Worse Than Obama’s
Talks have stalled in part because the president keeps aiming for a grand finale.
TL;DR
- President Trump sought support from Middle Eastern and South Asian leaders for a deal to end the conflict in Iran, but faced resistance when proposing to link it to an expansion of the Abraham Accords.
- Negotiations have stalled due to mutual skepticism, differing incentives, the variety of issues to resolve, and Trump's desire for a grand regional transformation.
- Despite U.S. military actions, Iran has survived and gained leverage, preventing Trump from converting tactical success into diplomatic or political achievement.
- Israel's reluctance to abandon its war in Lebanon and its actions have made an expansion of the Abraham Accords unlikely.
- The negotiations have become a complex mix of objectives, including constraining Iran's nuclear program, reopening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, and reshaping the Middle East's political map.
- Attempts to seal a deal have been further complicated by Iran's withdrawal from talks, citing Israel's campaign in Lebanon, while Trump has sent mixed signals about the continuation of negotiations.
- Trump's approach has been characterized by impatience and a desire for a deal that surpasses Obama's, without wanting to be blamed for failure, leading to oscillating strategies and potential for a protracted stalemate.