The AfD has won a stunning victory in Saxony-Anhalt, turning years of eastern German discontent into a commanding electoral breakthrough. Yet its failure to secure a majority means the party is stronger than ever—and still unable to govern alone.

With 43.8% of the vote and 39 of the state legislature’s 83 seats, the AfD more than doubled its support from five years ago. Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s CDU collapsed to 17.2%, roughly half its previous result, while the Social Democrats, Greens and Left Party each won less than 10%. Turnout reached 77.8%, suggesting the result was not simply a protest by habitual non-voters.¹

AfD lead candidate Ulrich Siegmund framed the result as a popular revolt against Berlin. “We have written history,” he said, arguing that voters had decided “things cannot carry on like this.”² National co-leader Alice Weidel called the result a “clear mandate to govern” and offered an open hand to parties willing to “move Germany forward.”³

The contradiction is immediate. The AfD wants to govern alone and has ruled out a coalition, while the CDU and other mainstream parties insist they will not cooperate with a party classified by domestic intelligence authorities as right-wing extremist. “We will not work with them,” CDU general secretary Franziska Hoppermann said, citing the AfD’s positions on the euro, Russia and Germany’s social model.⁴

That firewall now looks less like a solution than a structural trap. The AfD can claim a historic mandate, but lacks the seats to implement its plans for deportations, tighter migration rules and closer ties with Russia. The CDU, meanwhile, must build a governing alternative with parties it normally rejects—or risk allowing the largest force in the state to dominate from opposition.

For Merz, the vote is both a regional defeat and a national warning: economic frustration and anger over migration are no longer merely benefiting the AfD. They are reshaping Germany’s political center.